STAGE 1

Assessing the problem with available data

Stages:

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Overview

Stage 1 guides the user in the identification of GHG emission hotspots from material use and prioritization of circular economy intervention areas for the NDC (steps 1.1 and 1.2) as well as the identification of relevant stakeholders to engage (step 1.3). Existing national data that is available can be used as well as engaging national science and research entities to support the data analysis. The results from this phase can be used as a baseline during the evaluation phase (stage 4).

A lead institution should be agreed to drive the planning, coordination, implementation and tracking for integrating circularity into the NDC and ensuring associated GHG emissions reductions are captured. Efforts would be coordinated with the NDC Coordination Committee when this exists, or through a national coordinator/focal point. It is also important to engage and potentially build capacities of line ministries in the identified sectors/sub-sectors for the successful planning, budgetary alignment, implementation, and reporting of circular economy interventions.

Checklist

By the end of this first stage, users will have:

Data on the GHG emission hotspots in relation to national material use/flows enabling a prioritization for circular economy interventions that can be used as a baseline in the evaluation stage (stage 4)

A shortlist of 1-2 prioritized sectors/sub-sectors and corresponding entry points that can be incorporated or enhanced with circular economy interventions within their NDC

Life cycle analysis information that provides information on the impacts of the materials across the value chain in the aforementioned sectors/sub-sectors and from which circular economy interventions can be identified

A preliminary understanding of the prioritized value chain and relevant stakeholders to engage in the next stage

SECTORAL EXAMPLES FOR STAGE 1 CASE STUDIES

SECTORAL EXAMPLES FOR STAGE 1

Sectoral examples for Stage 1

Food loss and waste

Using the proposed steps, policymakers can identify GHG emission hotspots of food sub-sectors (and thus, the potential for GHG emission reductions and cost savings as well as priority entry points). The national food loss and waste baseline can also be measured and used to later develop measurable indicators and targets. The Food Loss Index and the Food Waste Index provide clear methodologies for measuring and reporting on food loss and waste under Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 12.3, to halve food waste and reduce food loss across supply chains.

In some cases, it may be useful to conduct a food systems mapping, including a gender-sensitive mapping of food losses which will provide information on specific gender-based constraints that hinder women’s and men’s ability to efficiently participate in the food value chain, from production to consumption. Assessing opportunities at various stages of the food system as well as engaging associated actors through stakeholders consultations will be critical

The full case for food loss and waste can be found in Chapter 4 of the user guide.

Buildings and construction

Using the proposed steps, policymakers can identify and prioritize hotspots in material use and GHG emissions in relation to buildings and construction with particular attention to embodied emissions and the life cycle of materials used in the buildings and construction value chain. The user can then assess the NDC to identify entry points to incorporate sub-sectors and/or GHGs in relation to the identified hotspots. For example, this can be in 1A2 Manufacturing Industries and Construction, 2A1 Cement Production, 2C1 Iron and Steel Production, 3D1 Harvested Wood Products, Waste.

This stage also enables an understanding of stakeholders to engage across the value chain, cognizant that in buildings and construction governments exert significant influence as 1) regulators of financial markets, 2) investors in the construction sector, and 3) urban and territorial planners, and regulators of the construction sector.

The full case for buildings and construction can be found in Chapter 4 of the user guide.

Tools and resources for the sectoral examples can found in the Resource Library.

CASE STUDIES

Case studies

South Sudan

Application of the SCP-HAT to update South Sudan’s NDC

To identify new decarbonization policies and associated circular economy mitigation strategies for South Sudan’s updated NDC, GHG emissions were analysed from a material flow perspective using the SCP-HAT. The assessment was conducted using the following steps:

1) Extraction of data on South Sudan’s economy from SCP-HAT;

2) Review of the status of South Sudan’s economy from a climate change perspective; and

3) Use of information and data gathered to map material flows within South Sudan’s economy.

GHG emissions from domestic production were mostly from agriculture and livestock, followed by the petroleum and service sectors. In terms of resource consumption, industry, hotels, restaurants and other service sectors were significant, demonstrating that embodied GHG emissions were equally important. It was also possible to determine the output, employment, and emissions profile of different sectors based on this analysis as well as sector-based directed mitigation and adaptation strategies.

The proposed sectoral strategies, if implemented, will help South Sudan achieve decarbonization targets compatible with the Paris Agreement’s goals. In total, by implementing the identified circular economy strategies, South Sudan can reduce an estimated 109.87 million tCO2e and sequester 45.06 million tCO2e by 2030 while at the same time generating new jobs.

Source: South Sudan’s NDC submitted in September 2021. Available here.

Lao People’s Democratic Republic

Circular economy opportunities identified for the NDC update in Lao PDR

An analysis was conducted in Lao PDR to identify GHG mitigation opportunities and integrate circular economy measures into Lao PDR’s updated NDC. This analysis utilised a material flow analysis, trends assessment of natural assets and produced stocks, policy, and business case analyses.

The initial assessments determined the circularity of Lao PDR by identifying 332 national material ﬂows and determining whether each is circular or linear. The consumption-based circularity gap for Lao PDR specifies the share of domestic consumption from renewable or secondary resources, and for which materials are recovered at the end-of-life phase. Consumption in Lao PDR is estimated to be 27 percent circular. Imported goods and materials account for 5.6 percent of the consumption-based GHG footprint.

The overall analyses prioritized circular economy opportunities that offer GHG mitigation potential, create green jobs, reduce waste disposal, and increase gross domestic product (GDP).

The analysis identified 17 circular economy interventions that can reduce Lao PDR’s carbon footprint from 106 to 58 million tCO2e/year and help it achieve carbon neutrality by 2040. They include substituting carbon-intensive construction materials with wood-based construction, improving the circularity of food systems to decrease food loss and waste and improve livestock efficiency, and promoting the use of public transport and its electrification to decrease road transport emissions. The analysis found that solid waste disposal could be reduced by 86 percent and 2.6 million tonnes of food waste and losses could be avoided. As a viable business opportunity, 82 percent of the circular GHG mitigation potential will provide returns on investment in under 2.5 years. Moreover, the GDP from the circular economy in Lao PDR could reach $16 billion by 2050 and generate 1.6 million green jobs.

Source: UNDP (2021). Circular Mitigation Opportunities in Lao PDR. A Metabolic Approach to Defining a Resource-Efficient and Low-Carbon Future.